Jonathan V. Bever
Japan Blog II – Can a Strengthening Currency Bring a Recession? Imagine: Nikkei 225
Explore Japan's economic resurgence as it battles inflation and deflation, amid a weakening Yen and strengthening dollar.
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Jonathan V. Bever
- 9 min
Outlook 2023: Valuation Pendulum
Our Prediction On The S&P 500 for 2023 "If something cannot go on forever, it will stop," Herbert Stein. It has been so long since we...
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Jonathan V. Bever
- 5 min
Why the Fed Pivot is Metaphorically Immediate and Not a Process
One Page: One Piece of the puzzle #3. Federal Fund Rates “The term federal funds rate refers to the target interest rate set by the...
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Jonathan V. Bever
- 4 min
Inflationary Gap Getting the Genie Back in the Economic Bottle: Resetting GDP
Our topic will be the economic term "the inflationary gap." First, we will attempt to unpack this quote from Investopedia: An...
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Jonathan V. Bever
- 3 min
One-page: One-Piece of the Puzzle
While today’s headline CPI number is painfully high at 9.1%*. We want to point out this is a lagging indicator.
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Jonathan V. Bever
- 9 min
A Return of the Bull 3: The Fed Has Very Little Room to Raise Rates
The inflation which looks crippling will roll over; when it does, it will be fast and furious. This blog covers Fulcrum's current thesis.
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Jonathan V. Bever
- 9 min
A Return of the Bull: Blog II
Investors ask what we expect the market to look like in the coming 12 months. This blog is our thinking behind this thesis.
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Jonathan V. Bever
- 10 min
China: part 1
Labor Inflation: Exported Baltic Dry Index: Unyielding debt limits: This is going to be a longer blog than usual; we are going to break...
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Jonathan V. Bever
- 5 min
Don’t cut down your retirement tree. Lumber bubble blog: Natural resource
We are experiencing something we have never experienced before. I am referring to the easy money coming out of the Fed Reserve bank. It...
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Jonathan V. Bever
- 11 min
Return of the Bull blog 1
Inflation and the Big Mac Negative yields Common-sense: Makes-sense: Non-sense. Using common sense, a few charts, discipline,...
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Fulcrum Wealth Advisors
- 9 min
A return to volatility #7 – Goldilocks and the return of the bull: (neither too hot nor too cold)
Casey Stengel "Never make predictions, especially about the future." We will heed his advice. In the following pages, we are going to...
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Jonathan V. Bever
- 11 min
A Return to Volatility #6
This is our 6th addition to the Return to Volatility. We will try to tie together some of the concerning issues over the last 2 years
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Fulcrum Wealth Advisors
- 2 min
SARS Coronavirus (COVID-19)
Fulcrum Wealth Advisors, like most firms, has been fielding many calls about this current market situation. Many people are asking about...
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Fulcrum Wealth Advisors
- 8 min
A Return To Volatility 2020 #5
Written by: Jonathan V. Bever Typically, a dollar today is worth more today than tomorrow (inflation), but what if a dollar is worth more...
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Fulcrum Wealth Advisors
- 10 min
The Very Big Picture
The very big picture: The long-term valuation of the market is commonly measured by the Cyclically Adjusted Price to Earnings ratio, or...
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Fulcrum Wealth Advisors
- 5 min
A return to volatility Part IV
Written by: Jonathan V. Bever It is now August; again, I find myself in Tokyo for a series of meetings. While I have friends here who are...
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Fulcrum Wealth Advisors
- 6 min
Return to volatility: Part III-Why?
Written by: Jonathan V. Bever This is a follow up blog the last blog, “Return to Volatility: Part II”. As I sit in a swank coffee shop in...
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Fulcrum Wealth Advisors
- 5 min
The Return to Volatility: Part II
Written by: Jonathan V. Bever Investing from the end of the diving board When I wrote a “Return to Volatility” last February, there was...
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Fulcrum Wealth Advisors
- 4 min
A tide in the affairs of men (Return to volatility #1)
Written by: Jonathan V. Bever There is a tide in the affairs of men, which taken at the flood, leads on to fortune. Omitted, all the...
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